BATTLE GROUND STATES: National Assembly elections to watch out for (1)

OrderPaperToday – With barely days to the presidential and national assembly elections, uncertainty fills the air especially as some incumbent legislators would not be having a smooth sail. There are some political heavyweights in the major political parties that would be jostling for the same position that they could have assumed in time past to be a birthright. This cluster of battles is prominent in the following states:

Kano State: It is Kwankwasiyya versus Gandujiyya

The ancient state of Kano will play election politics along the Kwankwasiyya and Gandujiyya divides generally. The former is a mass political movement led by Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, former presidential aspirant under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), former governor, ex-minister and former deputy speaker of the House of Representatives. On the other divide is incumbent governor, Umar Ganduje, an estranged aide and protégé of Kwankwaso, who has sworn to retire his former benefactor from Kano politics in the coming polls. Both men have large following and would be leading their team of contestants for legislative posts under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) respectively. This testy proxy battle makes Kano a battle ground state not just for the presidential election but for the legislative polls as well.

For the kano Central senatorial district for instance, Mr. Aliyu Madaki, a ranking and vibrant member of the House of Representatives will be flying the PDP flag against Mr. Ibrahim Shekarau, a two-term former governor and former Minister of Education under the Jonathan administration. He clinched the APC ticket for the race, although he cannot be said to be Gandujiyya adherent being that he commands his own parallel political clout in the state. It is going to be difficult to predict exactly who will win the elections this coming Saturday between these two. The other two senatorial seats are also going to be keenly contested by representatives of both divides.

Other well-known names in National Assembly who are still very much in the game as it concerns Kano politics are Mr. Alhassan Ado-Dogowa (APC), the current Chief Whip of the House; Mr. Bala Dawaki (APC), chairman Appropriations committee; Nassiru Ahmed; Aminu Suleiman, ranking member and chairmen of Tertiary Education committee; and Jibrin Abdulmumuni, the budget padding whistle-blower. These are all staunch Gundujiyya men of the APC who were hitherto loyalists of Kwankwaso before the cookie crumbled. They would be challenged by the following PDP candidates contesting for the same seats: Aliyu Yako (Bebeji/Kiru federal constituency currently occupied by Mr. Jibrin); Ado Hotoro (Nasarawa constituency occupied by Nassiru); Ibrahim Jibril (Fagge constituency occupied by Mr. Suleiman); Yashau Abdulahi (for Doguwa/Tudun Wada constituency occupied by Mr. Doguwa, one of the most ranking members of the House); and Manir Dahiru (for Dawaki Tofa/Tofa/Rimin Gado constituency of Mr. Dawaki). These Kwankwasiyya men would seek to dislodge their Gundijiyya counterpart in a battle of very high stakes. Mr. Abubakar Danburam, the PDP incumbent for Kano Municipal federal constituency will be challenged by Sharada Ibrahim of the APC in Saturday’s polls.

This battleground series is in furtherance of the OrderPaperNG Legislative Intelligence Forecast Entry (LIFE) Service put together specifically for the 2019 elections.

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